In the past few months, the Baltic Dry freight Index (the Baltic Dry Index, BDI) and continuous, by July 1000 o 'clock up more than double to 2003 points at the end of September. BDI index released by the Baltic hna exchange in London, is a measure of international ocean shipping, reflect the leading index of international trade, as well as shipping industry, the main economic indicators. Despite the high current BDI index in two years, but overall is still wandering in the trough. The author thinks that, the mainland shipping industry and short-term will follow, but the pain is long-term recovery.
Short-term built cyclical peak season and policy support
In the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season dry bulk carrier market. The so-called dry bulk carrier, is mainly refers to iron ore, coal, grain and cement upstream primary products such as transportation. BDI data show that in 2001-2012 over the past 12 years, ten years in the fourth quarter of BDI average climbed. Reasons behind, globally, with the temperature decrease, concentrated in the developed countries of the northern hemisphere to coal for heating during the winter, coal transportation demand improved significantly, at the same time, in the fourth quarter is the grain harvest period, food transport demand will increase. Mainland, mines in the north of China in winter to mining, located in the northern mines need reserves of raw materials, in the fourth quarter of iron ore demand will increase significantly. Therefore, the author expects the fourth quarter is expected to maintain traffic demand, ?
The inauguration of the policy, Shanghai free trade zone will undoubtedly good shipping. Within the free trade area preferential policies to attract goods together in the past, the transport demand. But free trade area is still in concept stage, the demand for shipping the essence remains to be verified. Is another good policy, this year on September 2, China transportation office issued "about promoting the healthy development of shipping industry transformation and upgrading a number of opinions", the "opinion" said will be through the various aspects of measures to support the shipping industry. The details are not available at the moment, mainly involved in the next 2-3 years scrapping subsidies for old transport vessel, the move will undoubtedly help to improve shipping companies form structure and profitability.
BDI is difficult to maintain and excess capacity industry outlook remains bleak
